Pull the CAC, take-rate, retention and spend levers. See the 12-month ramp, what each target actually requires, and which lever pays most from here.
Assumptions (editable)
Day-0 native subscription orders carry source "web" (confirmed from 8 historical orders), which is why the Klaviyo flow guards on order value. Legacy floor decays because Kaching has no new inflow since the July flip.
Levers
Every stat tile, the chart, and the target solve update live as you move these.
Daily ad spend$218
$100$2,500
Scaling gates: each step earns the next
Spend scales past $500/day only when data warrants it. This is the discipline layer, not a projection.
$218 → $500/day
7 days at CAC ≤ $55, checkout completion ≥ 55%, OTO take ≥ 50%, CTR stable. Leading indicators only, readable fast. Extra traffic also speeds up the A/B readout.
$500 → $750
A/B winner rolled to 100%, CAC re-proven ≤ $50 at $500/day (every step must re-prove CAC, scaling raises it), creative pipeline refilled: 3+ fresh concepts, frequency under 4.
$750 → $1,250
Box-2 retention ≥ 50% confirmed on the first OTO cohort (data exists ~day 60, late September at the earliest). Email flow converting ≥ 5%. CAC ≤ $45. Before retention exists, spend past $750 scales an unverified LTV assumption.
$1,250 → $1,900
Retention ≥ 55% across two cohorts, per-customer steady-state value ≥ $20, creative engine on a real iteration cadence. At this tier creative volume is the constraint, not budget.
Downshift triggers, automatic: CAC over $65 for 3 days drops one step. Checkout completion under 45% freezes spend. Frequency over 5 with CTR under 2% means no new spend until fresh creative ships.
Net: $500/day in August, $750 in September, retention decides October. $10k/mo is a Q4 arrival at these gates.
CAC$50
$25$90
Winning arm
Sub-arm accept rate (a)40%
10%70%
Ladder take rate (t)67%
30%85%
Ladder tier mix (of accepts)
2 btl60%
3 btl25%
4 btl15%
Box-2 retention (r2)50%
20%80%
Ongoing box retention (box 3+, rn)70%
50%90%
Email flow conversion (f)5%
0%15%
Kaching legacy floor$8,200
$0$12,000
measured 7/22: ~87 active legacy subs, $12.4k/mo revenue, ~$8.2k/mo contribution
Legacy churn rate6%
0%/mo15%/mo
Where you land
Month 12 profit (contribution)
$0
new engine + decayed legacy floor at month 12, not a forever number
Crosses selected target
—
month the ramp first clears the dashed line
New customers / mo
0
spend × 30.4 / CAC
Subs started / mo
0
immediate accepts + email-flow converts
Active subscribers (approx)
0
n_s × (1 + E), steady-state approximation
Per-customer economics
$0
first-order margin minus CAC · recurring/customer: $0
12-month ramp
Each cohort's boxes ship on months +2, +4, +6… at the survival curve you set. The legacy floor decays in behind it.
Pick a target. The line moves. The panel below reverse-solves the minimum daily spend at your current settings.
…
Sensitivity
Month-12 profit delta from a single move on each lever, computed live from where your sliders sit right now.
Which lever pays most from where you stand right now.
Reading the model
The crossover: below ~45-50% box-2 retention the ladder beats the subscription on 90-day contribution. Above it, the subscription compounds past everything the ladder can do.
Months 1-2 at scaled spend run negative while the subscriber base builds. That is the model working, not failing. Pull the plug there and you pay the CAC without collecting the compounding.
This is contribution profit: before apps, tools, and Serina's time. The Kaching floor is measured from the 7/22 pull, not estimated: it decays because that legacy base gets no new inflow since the July flip.
Model built 2026-07-22 · equations in source · data updates as the oto-v2 test reads out